Rehmonnya Institute of Civic Engagement
ASEAN Five-Point Consensus No Longer Viable
Introduction
The year 2026 marks a historic turning point for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as for the Myanmar political crisis. As the Philippines assumes the ASEAN chairmanship, the situation in Myanmar remains the most significant challenge threatening regional stability. The ASEAN Five-Point Consensus (5PC), adopted in 2021, has not achieved any tangible success in nearly five years and has effectively become unworkable. The junta’s disregard for its commitments, escalating violence within Myanmar, and unilateral elections are severely testing ASEAN’s unity and centrality. This analytical paper provides a detailed analysis of the international responses to the Myanmar issue as of January 2026, the future of ASEAN under the leadership of the Philippines, and the Myanmar situation. In particular, it will highlight the potential actions of the incoming chair, the Philippines, and assess with supporting data why the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus is no longer viable.
1.Chaungzon Coal Project Background and Current Status
Following the military coup, a coal project has been implemented in Mon State, between Drayel and Kalaw villages in Chaungzon Township, by the Border Affairs Ministry under the coup regime since 2023. Starting in June 2024, hundreds of acres of land were purchased for the project.
The Mon Unity Party (MUP), the political party of the Mon people, will participate in the upcoming (2025) election to be held by the Myanmar military junta. On November 20th, the Mon Unity Party’s election policy positions were broadcast on Myanmar Radio and Television (MRTV), which is controlled by the military junta, and were also reposted on the party’s official social media page.
