Peace Analysis (January, 2024)

In this January’s Peace Analysis, the trends of the self-autonomy adopted by certain ethnic armed organizations, within the Northern Alliance, with a main purpose to liberate from the control of the central government is existing into practice. The imminent prospect of a significant confrontation in the Southern regions of Burma/Myanmar during the new year, named “Battle Call of the Southern Burma,” has been highlighted in our weekly peace analysis. A thorough examination reveals that the revolutionary forces have gained an upper hand in the conflict, using their dominance in the southern part of Myanmar. Concurrently, the military junta’s strategic military efforts have heightened the intensity of the fierce clashes in this region. On the global stage, ASEAN and neighboring nations remain concerned about the ongoing Myanmar crisis. Furthermore, both the State Administration Council (SAC) and the National Unity Government (NUG) have publicly expressed support for China’s one-country policy, engaging in a diplomatic competition to foster positive relations with China.