Urban Encroachment: Myanmar’s Conflict Shifts and the NCA Dilemma


August Peace Analysis

The August Peace Analysis observes a direct impact between armed conflict and civilian casualties. This phenomenon is further analyzed from a geographical perspective, shedding light on the incremental advancement of revolutionary forces as they cross from forested regions, inhabited by ethnic armed groups, towards urban centers. A critical dimension of this conflict revolves around the violation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) according to the Myanmar military junta, State Administrative Council (SAC). This has been opposed by various responses from Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs). While some EROs view the NCA as null and void due to SAC  violations, others continue to adhere to its principles. Consequently, navigating the complexities of the NCA and the divergent positions among ethnic armed forces is of paramount importance in understanding the evolving dynamics of this conflict. Furthermore, within the broader international context, it is important to examine ASEAN’s stance and approach towards the Myanmar crisis.

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