The military junta violated the NCA (Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement) and entered the territory controlled by the New Mon State Party (NMSP) in Ye Township, Mon State. The main target of this military operation was the “Ye Belu” force, and the troops reportedly used local civilians as human shields and extorted money from them.
1.0 Introduction: A Deliberate Breach of Ceasefire
On September 25, 2025, Myanmar’s military junta conducted a significant incursion into territory controlled by the New Mon State Party (NMSP) in Ye Township. This operation represents a blatant violation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), to which both the military and the NMSP are signatories. The incursion abruptly terminated a nearly three-decade period of localized stability, signaling a potential and concerning shift in the junta’s strategic calculus regarding its commitments to ethnic armed organizations and the national peace process.
2.0 The Wae Ra Hine Incursion: Chronology and Conduct
A detailed analysis of the junta’s operational conduct reveals a clear intent to intimidate the local population and suppress armed resistance. The tactics employed, particularly the use of civilians as human shields and extortion, demonstrate a disregard for established ceasefire protocols and violate international humanitarian norms.
The military operation unfolded with the following key events:
- Date and Location: On September 25, 2025, a joint column of approximately 70 junta troops entered the Wae Ra Hine village area. This area falls within the administrative territory of the NMSP’s Dawei District.
- Historical Context: This event marked the first instance of a security patrol or military column entering this specific village tract in the nearly 30 years since the original 1995 ceasefire agreement, highlighting the unprecedented nature of the breach.
- Violation of Civilian Security: Upon entering Wae Ra Hine village, the column fired weapons, causing material damage to homes in an apparent act of intimidation.
2.1 Human Rights Abuses and Intimidation Tactics
The column’s conduct demonstrated a fundamental transgression of standard patrol protocols, escalating into a targeted campaign of civilian intimidation.
- Mass Arrests and Human Shields: The column arrested a total of 28 civilians from the Adain Garden and Wae Ra Hine areas. These individuals, including a 17-year-old youth, were subsequently forced to act as human shields, marching at the front of the column to deter potential attacks from resistance forces. This marks the first documented case of mass porterage in Ye Township since the 2021 coup.
- Abuse and Extortion: During their detention, some of the civilians were beaten. According to media reports, the detainees were eventually released at Kan Hla village, but only after being forced to make payments. A finding by the RICE research group further revealed that some individuals were extorted under the pretext that homemade airguns had been discovered in their gardens.
After these initial acts, the junta column occupied Wae Ra Hine village overnight, prolonging the intimidation of the local community before proceeding on its route. This pattern of intimidation and abuse was not random; it served a set of calculated strategic objectives aimed at neutralizing a key local resistance actor.
3.0 Assessed Strategic Objectives
The incursion into Wae Ra Hine was not a random patrol but a targeted operation with clear military and political objectives. Its design was aimed at degrading the capabilities of local resistance forces that have proven effective against the junta’s control in the region.
- Primary Target: The operation’s main objective was unequivocally the ‘Ye Bilu’ (Ye Ogre) battalion. This guerrilla force has established a reputation over the past two years for conducting effective attacks against junta forces, affiliated militias, and administrative bodies.
- Tactical Aims: The junta’s operation pursued three core tactical goals intended to cripple the ‘Ye Bilu’ battalion:
- To hinder the battalion’s military mobility and freedom of movement in the region.
- To sever the battalion’s critical logistical and supply routes.
- To suppress and block local civilian support for the resistance group, thereby isolating it from its popular base.
Beyond these immediate military goals, the operation likely serves a broader political objective. Framed as a mission to ensure security and stability, the incursion can be interpreted as a “clearing operation” conducted in preparation for planned future elections, aiming to pacify contested areas by force. This military action provoked an immediate and predictable armed response from local forces.
4.0 Military Escalation and Resistance Response
The junta’s operation failed to achieve its pacification objective; rather than suppressing resistance, it catalyzed a swift and violent escalation from local defense forces. This triggered a series of retaliatory attacks that demonstrated the resilience and operational capacity of the ‘Ye Bilu’ battalion.
- October 1, 2025: Just four days after the junta column departed the immediate area, the ‘Ye Bilu’ battalion engaged a separate junta column near the War Kyaung Monastery in Ayu Taung village, resulting in a direct clash.
- October 10, 2025: The ‘Ye Bilu’ battalion conducted a subsequent attack, using 60mm heavy weapons to shell the junta’s Light Infantry Battalion (LIB) 591, which is based in the nearby village of Kyaung Ywar.
“These engagements underscore that the junta’s incursion did not achieve regional stability but instead intensified the armed conflict, creating significant consequences for civilians and the broader political landscape.”
These engagements underscore that the junta’s incursion did not achieve regional stability but instead intensified the armed conflict, creating significant consequences for civilians and the broader political landscape.
5.0 Consequences and Strategic Implications
The fallout from the Wae Ra Hine operation extends far beyond the immediate battlefield. It has created severe humanitarian distress for the local community and critically undermined the fragile foundations of the national peace process.
5.1 Humanitarian Impact
The primary burden of the military escalation has fallen on the civilian population, resulting in displacement and severe economic hardship.
- Residents of Wae Ra Hine village, fearing for their safety amidst the heightened military tension, have been forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in safer areas.
- The insecurity has caused severe economic disruption, forcing villagers to abandon their primary livelihood of rubber tapping, leaving them without a source of income.
5.2 Political Ramifications
The political implications of the junta’s actions are profound, signaling a blatant disregard for negotiated agreements and placing other signatories in a difficult position.
- The incursion demonstrates that the junta places little value on its commitments under the NCA, treating the agreement as subordinate to its immediate military objectives.
- This violation places significant political pressure on NCA signatories, particularly the NMSP. It forces them to reconsider their ceasefire positions and their overall relationship with a military council that does not honor its own agreements.
The degradation of local stability and the NCA framework provides a clear lens through which to assess the junta’s broader strategic priorities.
6.0 Final Assessment
The military operation in Ye Township is a clear illustration of the junta’s governing strategy: prioritizing short-term military gains at the direct expense of established peace agreements and civilian security. This approach, characterized by the violation of ceasefire lines and the abuse of non-combatants, not only fails to suppress armed resistance but actively fuels it. By unilaterally abandoning long-standing ceasefire arrangements for tactical advantage, the junta is systematically dismantling the remaining foundations of the national peace process, portending deeper conflict and further instability across the country.
Translated from RICE Weekly Peace Analysis
