Browsing: Monthly analysis

MONTHLY SOCIO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS  JANUARY 2024 Rehmonnya Institute For Civic Engagement (RICE)  Myanmar, also known as Burma, continues to face significant challenges in attaining a state of peace. The Myanmar military, which addresses the political problem by using violence, is now facing unprecedented levels of defeat. The civil war has escalated throughout the entire country, with armed clashes persisting endlessly. Simultaneously, the economic progress achieved over the past decade under democratic governance is regressing. Furthermore, the healthcare and education sectors are deteriorating rapidly, lacking reliable healthcare system and accessible education for all. The military junta presently suffers substantial losses,…

In this January’s Peace Analysis, the trends of the self-autonomy adopted by certain ethnic armed organizations, within the Northern Alliance, with a main purpose to liberate from the control of the central government is existing into practice. The imminent prospect of a significant confrontation in the Southern regions of Burma/Myanmar during the new year, named “Battle Call of the Southern Burma,” has been highlighted in our weekly peace analysis. A thorough examination reveals that the revolutionary forces have gained an upper hand in the conflict, using their dominance in the southern part of Myanmar. Concurrently, the military junta’s strategic military…

In the aftermath of the Mokha storm, the inhabitants of Rakhine state find themselves contending with the arduous task of reconstruction, hoping for a return to normalcy. Regrettably, their aspirations have been thwarted by the unfolding events. The extension of the 1027 Operation into Rakhine State has disrupted the fragile ceasefire commitment between the Rakhine Army (AA) and the Military. This breach holds significant implications for the people of Rakhine, who now face the brunt of renewed hostilities. Paradoxically, amidst the challenges and the immediate impact on the civilian population, there is an observable surge in the Rakhine revolution. This…

Peace Analysis, October 2023 In the wake of the Spring Revolution surpassing its 1000-day milestone, Burma/ Myanmar finds itself caught in over 11, 000 armed conflicts across the nation, yet the prospect of peace remains elusive. This enduring turmoil is rooted in the constricted parameters of the prevailing political structure, exacerbated by the expanding scope of military warfare. Notably, October witnessed a surge in military operations, marked by significant developments, particularly in the northern Shan region where Northern Alliance forces launched successful attacks, reclaiming numerous military junta camps a development akin to Kokang’s homecoming. This triumph bolstered revolutionary groups in…

Monthly Socio-Economic Analysis  October, 2023  Rehmonnya Institute For Civic Engagement (RICE) The rise of armed clashes in Southern Burma  The current political situation in Myanmar has changed to complexity after the 2021 coup to military rule. The civil war and armed clashes have intensified all over the country. As the armed conflicts intensify, the rule of law mechanism has deteriorated further. The fundamental right, which is the freedom to live peacefully, the rights of safety and security, and the freedom of expression are forbidden under unjust law and are no longer available anymore. The situation is getting worse and…

Peace Analysis, September 2023 This analysis focuses into the complex and dangers of air operations within Myanmar’s political landscape, exploring the evolving dynamics between the State Administrative Council (SAC) and the joint forces of the Ethnic Resistance Organizations (EROs) and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) amidst the ongoing armed revolution after the military coup. A pivotal aspect shaping contemporary military strategies is the unprecedented rise of drone capabilities, a phenomenon that has dramatically altered the course of engagements. This paper researches the far-reaching implications of drone warfare, an advancement that has inflicted significant casualties upon the military establishment. Consequently, seeking…

Monthly Socio-Economic Analysis  September, 2023  Rehmonnya Institute For Civic Engagement (RICE) A southeast Asia country, (Myanmar formerly known as Burma), still leads a Failed State with various and several collapses following the 2021 coup. Internal instability and intense armed clashes persist throughout the nation, showing no signs of improvement despite nearly three years passing since the coup. Extreme armed conflict and internal instability have led to economic and social collapses such as education and health care. The rule of law has completely crumbled, leading to deteriorating safety and security conditions for the people, with incidents of theft, violence, robberies, and…

August Peace Analysis The August Peace Analysis observes a direct impact between armed conflict and civilian casualties. This phenomenon is further analyzed from a geographical perspective, shedding light on the incremental advancement of revolutionary forces as they cross from forested regions, inhabited by ethnic armed groups, towards urban centers. A critical dimension of this conflict revolves around the violation of the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) according to the Myanmar military junta, State Administrative Council (SAC). This has been opposed by various responses from Ethnic Revolutionary Organizations (EROs). While some EROs view the NCA as null and void due to SAC…

July Peace Analysis In the realm of Myanmar’s political landscape, a significant development looms as the military junta contemplates relocating Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the detained civilian government leader, from prison to house arrest. This strategic maneuver, aimed at alleviating the escalating international pressure on SAC (State Administration Council). Notably, Myanmar’s military junta authorities have formally deferred the promised election scheduled for August, extending the state of emergency once again beyond the 2008 constitution. Conversely, the once conventional revolutionary forces, now transformed into an exceptional entity of the military’s “All roads lead to Nay Pyi Taw” strategy. Additionally, an…

Monthly Socio-Economic Analysis for June (2023)  Rehmonnya Institute For Civic Engagement (RICE) Political Situation  The country (Myanmar) has still been struggling with various crises and a severe collapse following the 2021 coup. The internal instability and strong-intensive armed clashes across the nation. Despite the coup being in effect for almost three years, there is no indication of improvement. The economic and social sectors, including education and healthcare, are in a state of disarray rather than progress. The armed conflict between the People’s Defense Force (PDF), some Ethnic Resistance Organizations (ERO), and the Burmese military is intensifying, with battles raging…

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