Upcoming Election May Intensify Fighting in Mon State

In July, there were fewer battles in Mon State between the military and revolutionary forces compared to the dry season because of the rain. However, fighting still continued. It was especially present in the southern part of Mon State, in Ye Township and the border area between Ye and Thanbyuzayat.

Details of Recent Fighting

 The revolutionary forces used guerrilla-style operations, targeting the military’s government offices and army camps. At the same time, the military continued to fire heavy weapons and use airstrikes on villages where civilians live. In Kyaikto and Bilin townships, there was one airstrike and one heavy weapon attack in each, which killed two civilians.

In total, there were seven clashes: one in Bilin, two in Thanbyuzayat, and four in Ye Township. Additionally, in Ye Township, there was one drone attack by the Mon State Revolution Force (MSRF) and one heavy weapon attack by the military. Most of the fighting happened on Highway 8, north of Ye Township. The military has lost control of this part of the highway for years since the coup, and revolutionary groups have remained in control.

Growing Alliance of Resistance Forces

Several groups fought together in these battles. These include the Mon State Revolution Force (MSRF) of the Mon State Federal Council (MSFC), the Ye People’s Defense Force (Ye-PDF), and a unit from the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA). This shows it is part of a joint Mon-Karen revolution.

There is a plan to expand these joint operations to include forces from the Tanintharyi region, according to a PDF operations commander. In fact, from July 11-14, combined forces from Mon, Karen, and Tanintharyi (Dawei) groups attacked a military column that was bringing reinforcements to a camp in Yebyu Township.

To coordinate their efforts, operations commanders from Mon, Karen, Tanintharyi, and PDF forces met on April 21. Battalion commanders also met in the first week of July to form a military alliance.

Analysis: Why Fighting Could Worsen

The military has announced it will hold an election in the near future. In response, various revolutionary groups have announced they will oppose it.

To provide security for the election, the military will have to conduct “area clearing” operations. They may also try to take back control of Highway No.8. Therefore, clashes between the military and the more organized revolutionary groups could happen. The fighting could become more intense, especially in southern Mon State and the Ye-Thanbyuzayat border area.

To provide security for the election, the military will have to conduct “area clearing” operations. They may also try to take back control of Highway No.8. Therefore, clashes between the military and the more organized revolutionary groups could happen. The fighting could become more intense, especially in southern Mon State and the Ye-Thanbyuzayat border area.

During these operations, the military is likely to use airstrikes and heavy weapons. While they have used these tactics before, it should be noted that they might be used more widely.

Recommendations for Public Safety

The main challenge for the public is security. People face dangers from airstrikes, heavy weapons, landmines, and also risk unlawful arrest and killings by the military. Road closures have stopped the flow of goods, causing major economic hardship.

Here is some advice for the public:

Stay away from military camps, their vehicle convoys, and government offices, as these are military targets for resistance forces.

In cities, avoid election-related rallies and crowded places organized by the military, as they could become targets or lead to arrests.

Take warnings from revolutionary groups seriously. Prepare emergency plans like digging a bomb shelter in your home and getting medicine and food ready in advance.

Be careful of false news and only follow trusted news sources.

Translated from Weekly Peace Analysis of RICE