Introduction
Although the coup-leading military junta has invited ethnic armed organizations and revolutionary groups for peace talks within 100 days, it has simultaneously escalated airstrikes, military offensives, and clearance operations. This indicates that the junta is using peace talks as a political ploy while simultaneously increasing military pressure.
Between June 14 and July 13, 2026, there were at least 13 airstrikes and 5 clashes in Mon State. The military pressures applied differently in northern and southern Mon State. In particular, the increased military pressure within the territory controlled by the New Mon State Party (NMSP), which continues to uphold the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), has further highlighted the disparity between the military junta’s peace policy and its actual actions.
The Junta’s Airstrikes and Divergent Objectives
Despite the rainy season, military conflicts in Mon State have not subsided but continue. The military conflict in Mon State will be analyzed and presented by dividing it into northern and southern regions.
In northern Mon State, combined forces led by the Karen National Union (KNU) may have put pressure on the junta’s frontline camps. Following this, the junta significantly increased its airstrikes in the northern region. Currently, there have been approximately 12 airstrikes. Most of these attacks did not target military objectives but instead focused on civilians and gold mining operations, resulting in civilian deaths and injuries.[1] Due to the attacks, 4 civilians died and 11 were injured. Among the deceased were a pregnant woman carrying twins and an 11-year-old child.
In the southern part of Mon State, the military junta also carried out an aerial attack on Chaung Hna Khwa village in Ye Township, an area controlled by the New Mon State Party (NMSP). This attack damaged buildings, including residences and a Mon National Primary School, which were constructed with support from the Nippon Foundation as part of a peace initiative.[2]
A common characteristic of these aerial assaults is that they target civilians and occur during periods when there are no active clashes between the two sides, indicating that military objectives are not the primary focus. However, the political and military motivations differ. In the north, the apparent intent was to pressure the Karen National Union (KNU) by disrupting their regional income sources and economic management within their controlled territories. In the south, however, targeting NMSP-controlled areas can be interpreted as political pressure rather than a military objective.
Military Actions Deviating from the NCA
The coup military junta not only carried out an aerial attack on Chaung Hna Khwa village but also arrested members of the New Mon State Party[3] from their old town camp near Lamaing on June 22nd. Furthermore, on June 25th, they advanced into an area controlled by the New Mon State Party near Wae Paung village, arresting local residents to act as guides.[4] Although no battles occurred in these incidents, it is evident that the military junta continuously pressured the New Mon State Party.
These situations reveal a significant disparity between the military junta’s calls for peace talks and its actual actions. While the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) is referenced as the basis for peace discussions, the escalation of military pressure even within the controlled territories of an NCA signatory organization is a situation that could undermine trust in the NCA.
The New Mon State Party’s stance
Despite military pressure, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) has not made any significant retaliatory moves and has continued to maintain the path of dialogue. On July 2nd, the New Mon State Party (NMSP) met with the military council’s National Solidarity and Peacemaking Negotiation Committee (NSPNC) in Naypyidaw.[5]
This indicates that the New Mon State Party has not yet abandoned the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) and the path of dialogue. However, if the military council continues to escalate military pressure, will the New Mon State Party change its stance? Or will it continue to maintain its current position and adapt to the military council? This is the interesting point that we have to look forward to.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the military incidents that occurred in Mon State have further highlighted the disparity between the military junta’s peace invitations and its actual military actions. While increasing military and economic pressure on the KNU in the north, the junta also continuously applied military pressure in the territories controlled by the New Mon State Party (NMSP), which upholds the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA). Despite the NMSP’s strict adherence to the NCA, the military junta’s actions consistently violate the agreement. It is assessed that the military junta is utilizing the NCA not merely as a peace mechanism, but more as a tool to simultaneously exert political and military pressure and threats.
[1] Karen Information Center, June 24, 2026: One worker died and five were injured after the Bilin gold panning sites were bombed by aircraft for three consecutive days. Kareninformationcenter
[2] Independent Mon News Agency, June 18, 2026: New Mon State Party Nippon Foundation refugee camp air-attacked, no casualties.
[3] Independent Mon News Agency, June 24, 2026: Military Commission troops arrested and took away New Mon State Party members at Myohaung Station. Independentmonnewsagency
[4] Lagon Eain, June 28, 2026: The coup military column is advancing into the New Mon State controlled area.
[5] Ministry of Information, July 2, 2026: Meeting between the National Unity and Peace Implementation Coordination Committee and the New Mon State Party (NMSP).https://www.moi.gov.mm/index.php/news/84735
