Introduction
In late May 2026, coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing stated, “We will build a Union based on democracy and a federal system.” He further clarified that federalism “is a federal system based on territory, not on ethnicity.”[1] Although these statements appear to be a sign that the military government is accepting a federal system, it is necessary to analyze whether this concept of federalism can truly resolve the current political conflicts in Myanmar and the political demands of ethnic nationalities. The current political conflict in Myanmar is based on power-sharing, self-determination, and ethnic equality. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the discrepancies between the military council’s definition of federalism and the views of ethnic political forces on federalism.
The Junta Leader’s View on Federalism
The phrase, “We will establish a Union based on democracy and a federal system,” has been consistently used by military leaders as a political ploy whenever there was a need for political reform.[2] Historically, even when drafting the 2008 Constitution, the military interpreted the allocation of regional and state parliaments as a federal system. Currently, after the coup and subsequent elections, as the need for political reform arises again, the military leader has reiterated this statement.
According to the military leader’s view of federalism, “granting territory” means allocating some authority only within the existing boundaries of regions and states. This is merely a form of decentralization, where the central government (or the military) retains complete sovereignty, and only limited administrative power is distributed to the regions and states. By stating “not granting ethnicity,” the military rejects the demands of ethnic groups for the establishment of national states, including a “Bamar State,” and self-determination.
The reality of Myanmar’s political conflicts is not merely an issue of territorial administration but is intertwined with the political equality, self-determination, and national rights of ethnic nationalities. Therefore, limiting the definition of a federal system solely to a territory-based administrative system will not adequately address the root causes of the conflict.
Differences from the Federal Democracy Charter (FDC)
The Federal Democracy Charter, jointly drafted by the National Unity Government (NUG) and revolutionary forces, states that sovereignty derives from the people, not from the central government. It also acknowledges the right to self-determination of ethnic nationalities and aims to build an equitable Union.[3]
Therefore, the main objective of the Federal Democracy Charter is not solely power-sharing but also to resolve the historical political issues of ethnic nationalities. This point fundamentally differs from the federal concept espoused by the military leader.
Effect on Mon Politics
Currently, the Kachin (KIO), Karen (KNU), Karenni (IEC), Chin (CNF), Mon (NMSP-AD), Rakhine (AA) ethnic armed organizations and other civil-political organizations resisting the military council in Myanmar base their aspirations on national equality and self-determination. The federal system desired by ethnic groups, including the Mon, is an “ethnicity-based (or) national-state-based” federal system that recognizes the history and cultural identity of ethnic groups and allows them to determine their own destiny. Therefore, the military regime’s definition of a federal system still has significant discrepancies with the federal concepts demanded by Mon political forces and other ethnic revolutionary forces.
■ Conclusion
In summary, the statement by the coup leader regarding “a union based on democracy and a federal system” is an attempt to portray themselves as builders of a federal union and to enhance their prestige on the international stage. However, it does not fully reflect the fundamental issues of ethnic equality and self-determination that caused the current political conflicts in Myanmar. Therefore, it is concluded that a federal system capable of resolving Myanmar’s current political crisis needs to be a framework that not only bases itself on territorial power-sharing but also guarantees the political rights, self-determination, and equality of ethnic nationalities.
[1] Ministry Of Information, May 26, 2026: Learning from the experiences encountered in the country, efforts are being made to develop political, economic, and defense strengths through good leadership, and to enhance the nation’s prestige in the international arena.
https://www.moi.gov.mm/index.php/news/83224
[2] BBC, May 27, 2026: Interim President says he will grant federalism only to the regions. https://www.facebook.com/share/v/17ecM7vscz/
[3] RFA, May 28, 2026: The coup leader stated that federalism is granted to regions, not to ethnic groups.
