Election Strategy and Southern Armed Groups
The current political landscape in Myanmar is witnessing heightened tensions between the military junta’s attempts to hold elections and the revolutionary forces’ responses to those elections. The military junta are trying to use the election as their main strategy to rebuild their legitimacy, but the current conflict situation and new election laws make it entirely doubtful, both domestically and abroad.
The Military Junta’s Election Strategy
In Myanmar, the military junta declared a one-year state of emergency on February 1, 2021, when they first seized power, and have now extended the term for the seventh time, by six months, until July 31, 2025. When the seventh state of emergency expires, the State Administrative Council (SAC) was dissolved and transformed into the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC). This is also an attempt to function as an interim government before the election. Whatever the name changes, it is only a change in the form of military rule, as it is the same leadership style as the previous SAC.
Even if the election cannot be held at 100%, I would like to say that we are also considering that the next government and the election commission will fulfill the elections that cannot be held for various other reasons and make them complete when the elections are held.
This was stated by coup leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing during the tenth-anniversary ceremony of the NCA, saying that the election would be held in phases, first, second, and third.[1] The military leader’s statement clearly refers to his knowledge of the current situation in Myanmar, and he seems to be boasting that he will do whatever it takes, just like his words before the coup, “I dare to do anything.” China’s intervention and the recapture of some lost territories are proof of this.
It has been announced that the first election will be held on December 28, 2025, in 102 townships, and the second election will be held on January 11, 2026, in 100 townships.[2] The date of the third election has not yet been announced.
The law is intended to impose severe penalties, including the death penalty, on those who oppose the election process. As of November 2, there were (40) cases taken under this law, with (88) civilians arrested.
In addition, the military junta enacted a new law, the Law on Protection from Disturbing, Obstructing and Destroying Elections, in a timely manner to protect the election. The law is intended to impose severe penalties, including the death penalty, on those who oppose the election process. As of November 2, there were (40) cases taken under this law, with (88) civilians arrested.[3]
Even so, the military junta will continue to face challenges, as revolutionary forces from across the country, including southern Myanmar, will oppose an election that is not inclusive.
Response of revolutionary groups in southern Myanmar
Reactions of revolutionary groups in southern Myanmar It has been observed that some ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and revolutionary organizations (EROs) in southern Myanmar oppose the military junta’s election, while others support it. Among them, the New Mon State Party – Anti-Dictatorship/Revolutionary Military Alliance (NMSP-AD/RMA), the Mon State Federal Council (MSFC/MSRF), and the Karen National Union (KNU/KNLA), which are based and active in Mon State and adjacent Karen State, jointly announced with the National Unity Government (NUG) and other (EROs) that they strongly reject the military junta’s election. The statement said that the election planned by the military junta is considered a facade of democratic reform designed to solidify military rule.[4]
The Karen National Army (KNA), which is reinforcing the military junta as a Karen Border Guard Force, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), which has a ceasefire agreement with the military junta and adheres to the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), and the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army-Peace Council (KNU/KNLA-PC) issued a joint statement on September 28 supporting the election. The statement also stated that a joint team will provide protection to ensure that there are no damages or losses for participating in the election.[5] Although the New Mon State Party (NMSP) has not expressed support for the election, it has not shown any signs of opposition.
Currently, in Mon State, elections will be held in two phases: first in Kyaikto, Kyaik-Mayaw, Chaungzon, Mawlamyine, and Thaton townships, and second in Bilin, Mudon, Thanbyuzayat, Ye, and Paung townships. Consequently, there are increasing reports of military offensives using force in areas including Union Highway No. 8, which they had lost control of, within Mon State.
“We will fight to prevent their (the military commission’s) columns from entering. Now, they are trying to regain control of the territories controlled by revolutionary forces. That’s why they are using massive military force to launch offensives. This is not only happening in our Mon region, but also in other ethnic areas. Therefore, fighting could intensify during this election period,” warned Nai Mon Sai, Chairman of the Administrative Committee of the Mon State Federal Council (MSFC), which has been able to control the Ye-Thanbyuzayat section of Union Highway No. 8.[6]
Therefore, the political situation in Myanmar is reaching a stage of more intense political confrontation between the “military junta’s construction of legitimacy” and the “revolutionary forces’ electoral response.” The coup junta is trying to maintain its power through elections conducted with name changes and strict new laws. However, due to the opposition revolutionary groups rejecting the election and expanding their military and administrative territories, it is assessed that the junta’s election is merely a “strategic administrative face change” and will not bring peace.
[1] Yarmanya Times, October 15, 2025: The election will be held three times, and the remaining townships will be held by the next government and the election commission when holding by-elections. https://www.facebook.com/YarmanyaTimes/posts/pfbid0p2rZdjKxS6pVTT97qfpn4utaEsA5nCerWosi8SZbjdFzoYusRH9uvgAVwgwdxjP7l
[2] Ministry of Information, October 28, 2025: Announcement Regarding the Date and Townships Included for Holding the Multiparty Democracy General Election, Part (2).https://www.moi.gov.mm/index.php/news/76402
[3] Ministry of Information, November 2, 2025: Action will be taken against those who disrupt or obstruct the multi-party democratic general election. https://www.moi.gov.mm/news/76552
[4] NMSP (AD), October 12, 2025: Press release. https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1DTwN4nXeM/
[5] CNI Myanmar, September 28, 2025: Three Karen armed groups will provide protection for voting in the election. https://cnimyanmar.com/index.php/political-2/politics-local/31841-2025-09-30-05-27-29
[6] Independent Mon News Agency, October 28, 2025: Fighting may intensify during the election period. Independentmonnewsagency
