In the Mon region, the rising cost of living has outpaced income, leading to an imbalance between income and expenses for the public. As a consequence, basic daily wage earners are facing difficulties even in affording meals. The majority of the population is resorting to using lower-quality products or consuming cheaper food alternatives, which further deteriorates both their health and economic well-being.
- Commodity Prices, Energy, Livestock, and Socioeconomic Conditions
Until the end of October 2026, due to import bans/restrictions within the country and ongoing cracked-down arrests of border goods, Thai goods have become extraordinarily scarce, and the phenomenon of an expanding black market continues to occur.[1] During the 6-month period since the military-transformed government came into power in April, prices jumped respectively: Shwebo Pawsan Stream Rice per bag rose from 200,000 MMK to 230,000 MMK, palm oil per viss from 11,000 MMK to 25,000 MMK, and a single chicken egg from 500 MMK to 700 MMK.[2] In addition, daily essential kitchen onion prices were only around 1,500 MMK to 2,000 MMK per viss last year; however, they reached 7,000 MMK in the second week of September and surged to a record high of 10,000 MMK to 12,000 MMK per viss in retail markets in Mon State by early October.[3]
Furthermore, regarding the energy and fuel situation in Mon State, according to the reference fuel prices on October 20, Octane 95 reached 5,115 MMK per liter and Octane 92 reached 4,965 MMK per liter—rising by over 300 MMK compared to September—and prices are reported to be higher than in Yangon, Hpa-An, and Bago.[4] The primary reason for the high fuel prices is that importers bringing fuel into Mon State do not get permission to purchase US dollars at the Central Bank’s set exchange rate and must import using their own dollars purchased at the outside market rate. Additionally, fuel stations prioritised selling their quotas to the black market, and due to restrictions on the number of QR codes in rural areas, farmers and orchard workers are forced to buy from the outside black market at high prices around 10,000 MMK per liter. In Mon, besides gasoline, electricity blackouts have also worsened, with power available for only about 2 to 4 hours per day,[5] leaving Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in a state where they must purchase and use fuel from the black market at exorbitant prices to operate their businesses.
In the livestock sector, prices for animal feed, veterinary medicines, and raw materials have further increased by over 30 percent—and surged to more than 12 times higher compared to before the coup—due to import permit restrictions and the confiscation of raw materials entering from the Thai side under the label of illegality,[6] according to news media reports. Statements have also emerged highlighting that livestock farmers are facing a situation where they may have to shut down their operations due to high capital costs and a complete lack of profit margins.
The primary reasons behind these basic commodity prices and input costs skyrocketing to record levels are solely the government’s flawed import policies, seizures and confiscations, poor management of fuel and electricity, and rampant corruption with excessive extortion at sequential checkpoints. Meanwhile, the main drivers of the exorbitant rise in onion prices are the reduction in cultivated acreage this year due to losses suffered by farmers last year, a drop in incoming supply while domestic stocks are low prior to the arrival of the new monsoon onions, strong foreign demand, and restrictions on freight flows from the Anyar (Upper Myanmar) region (Pakokku, Monywa, Taungtha, Yesagyo, Seikphyu[7]Additionally, route blockades caused by territorial instability and active clashes present a major barrier to the flow of goods. For instance, on the Ahbit–Pulein–Tagundaing road section in Kyain Seikgyi Township, Karen State, the road had to be blocked on both sides due to fighting between advancing War Commission troops and joint revolutionary forces; although it was later reopened through negotiations led by Buddhist monks and responsible officials, travel and freight movement remain unstable and highly restricted due to security concerns.[8]
On the other hand, since official trade routes are blocked, traders are forced to smuggle goods through jungle routes; however, high-ranking military officers, families of personnel, and military circles are openly allowed to smuggle Thai goods and ammunition using vehicles along the Mon, Karen, Bago, and Yangon routes by paying money at checkpoints.[9] At the same time, the vehicles and warehouses of the public and ordinary traders are being forcibly raided, seized, and met with prison sentences. In Ye Township as well, local residents are facing ground-level hardships—such as extortion at inspection checkpoints and being forcibly conscripted under the military service law—rather than regional development.[10]
As a consequential impact of these developments, the public’s income and expenditure are no longer balanced, leaving basic day-to-day wage earners in a state where even having a meal has become difficult. Since essential food items like onions can no longer be purchased by the bag and must be bought in small quantities instead, household kitchen expenses have risen further, forcing people to switch to using low-quality products. Additionally, social and economic crises continue to arise, as hundreds of local residents are forced to flee to safety due to clashes and remain afraid to return home because the routes are not yet secure.[11] Furthermore, a statement by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) highlighted that out of over 50 million people in the country, more than 37 million are facing the risk of poverty.[12]
Examining the government sector’s response, military junta leader Min Aung Hlaing admitted that the country is facing the burden of high commodity prices under their administration, yet failed to provide an effective economic solution, simply instructing to carry out more local agriculture and livestock breeding instead.[13] Furthermore, on the ground, authorities at various levels are pursuing self-interest through the black-market economy by seizing goods and engaging in bribery through security checkpoints.
Former Mon State Minister of Security and Border Affairs, Colonel Kyaw Swar Myint himself, enriched himself by tens of thousands of lakhs over more than four years by taking hundreds of thousands of lakhs monthly through illegal trade and inspection checkpoints, leading to his removal from office; reports have emerged that plans are underway to replace him with a new minister at an emergency parliamentary session to be held on October 30.[14] Therefore, it is analyzed and presented along with the findings that the high commodity prices, energy, and economic crises currently facing Mon State as well as the entire country are multifaceted economic crises resulting purely from flawed policies, reduced agricultural production, transportation disruptions due to active clashes, and corruption among authorities following coup leader Min Aung Hlaing’s taking of the presidency.
- Re-arrests/Seizures of Unlicensed Motorcycles and Socioeconomic Impacts[15]
While local residents’ livelihoods and businesses are already in a tight bind due to the skyrocketing commodity prices and fuel/electricity crises mentioned above, the ground authorities’ direct targeting, inspection, and seizure of work-use vehicles have further disrupted the locals’ travel and daily livelihoods.
Currently, in most townships within Mon State, sudden surprise-check blockades and seizures targeting work-use unlicensed motorcycles are occurring with intense momentum along village alleyways, outer village roads, and all the way up to town entry and exit checkpoints. The military junta, in collaboration with traffic police and soldiers, is positioning itself inside villages while wearing civilian clothes rather than uniforms to wait and seize vehicles. Similarly, in Ye Township, all four entry/exit checkpoints (Chaungtaung Bridge, Asin, Zeepyauthaung Junction, and the Mawlamyine/Dawei exit road) were blocked off, resulting in the confiscation of no fewer than 74 motorcycles in a single day, as well as the arrest of several youths. Furthermore, without any official fine regulations, they are forcing owners to redeem their motorcycles without receipts by paying unrecorded amounts ranging from 500,000 MMK to 1.25 million MMK per vehicle, while making coercive threats to imprison both the individual and the motorcycle for 3 months if the money is not paid. Within the region, unlicensed motorcycles are imported through black-market routes via the Thai-Myanmar border points of Payathonzu (Three Pagodas Pass) and Myawaddy, as well as Karen/Mon border jungle tracks, and are also brought in by paying off the military junta’s checkpoints.
(2.1) Difficulties Encountered in Applying for New Licenses
The primary reason behind this situation is that the authorities have neither systematically issued official motorcycle licenses nor created accessible licensing channels for the public. Local residents, vendors, farm workers, and rubber tappers rely heavily on unlicensed motorcycles as their main mode of transport and work, yet the authorities—rather than maintaining traffic discipline—enter routes and villages with the sole intention of detaining vehicles to extort whatever bribes they desire for personal gain. Because most unlicensed motorcycles enter illegally through border smuggling routes without official Customs Clearance documents, it is impossible to apply for a license through regular Road Transport Administration Department (RTAD/Ka-Nya-Na) procedures; nor has the government opened any “Special Projects” to register unlicensed vehicles. Furthermore, even when such special projects do exist, costs become exorbitantly high due to fines, customs duties, broker fees, and corruption, alongside delays of months or years just for a project to be announced and an additional 1 to 3 months of processing time through sequential verification steps after applying.
(2.2) Consequential Impacts
As a consequence of the motorcycle seizures, vendors, farm workers, and rubber tappers no longer dare to go to work, resulting in delays to the point where regular businesses cannot function smoothly. Local residents are forced to call and check security conditions at road junctions in advance just to travel from one village to another; they face a crisis where they cannot travel using unlicensed motorcycles, yet are also unable to go to work with licensed motorcycles out of fear that they will be stolen or lost in the farms. Furthermore, alongside motorcycle seizures, there are ongoing forced conscription raids under the military service law, leaving youths afraid to step outside in the evenings and even fearing arrests directly from inside their homes, leading to a further decline in economic conditions and standards of living.
(2.3) Administrative/Government Sector Situation and Recommended Actions
The military junta has ignored the service of issuing official licenses while unlawfully oppressing people on the ground—with soldiers and traffic police collaborating to extort unrecorded bribes under the pretext of maintaining discipline, alongside the forced arrest and detention of both individuals and motorcycles. Therefore, local ward and village administrators should systematically collect and record data on unlicensed motorcycles in use and their riders, as well as negotiate to issue ward/village recommendation letters or temporary riding permits for farmers and rubber tappers. Additionally, they need to submit proposals to township administrations and the Road Transport Administration Department (RTAD/Ka-Nya-Na) to request mobile field-licensing projects directly in villages, and intervene to mediate and resolve cases involving exorbitant financial extortion.
- Temperature Rises Driven by Super El Niño and Health Conditions
While the public is already facing severe hardship due to military, administrative, and economic oppressions, the record-high temperature spikes caused by the global Super El Niño climate event—a major environmental challenge—have posed a further threat to the health and lives of local residents.
In Mon State during October, temperatures rose to record highs due to an extremely severe Super El Niño phenomenon, with maximum temperatures in Mawlamyine reaching up to 36 degrees Celsius. Due to this extreme heat, between October 1 and October 20, a total of 7 people died suddenly from heat stroke—including 4 people in Bilin Township, 1 person in Thaton Township, 1 mason worker at a construction site in Mawlamyine Township, and 1 person who collapsed unconscious while resting after playing football in Mudon Township. [16] In addition, the number of patients on the ground being transported to hospitals for treatment due to heat exhaustion, dizziness, and loss of consciousness continues to rise steadily.
This is because, according to a statement by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), an El Niño event has been confirmed in the Pacific Ocean and will reach its peak toward the end of 2026.[17] Due to this phenomenon, temperatures in southern Myanmar regions such as Mon and Karen States have risen by about 5 degrees Celsius above normal, creating conditions where temperatures could reach 40 degrees Celsius and above in the upcoming summer periods.[18]
Although the extreme heat is not felt immediately as the current period marks the transition from the end of the monsoon to winter, the El Niño phenomenon could persist until the end of February 2027; consequently, March, April, and May could become extremely hot, with night temperatures failing to drop, posing the risk of prolonged heatwaves.[19] Furthermore, according to global research forecasts, Super El Niño could lead to up to 450,000 heat-related deaths worldwide within six months,[20] and in Myanmar as well, droughts, drinking water shortages, and heat-induced health impacts and casualties could severely worsen.
(3.1) Response and Actions of the Government and Relevant Sectors
The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) and the Department of Health have issued warnings advising the public to avoid direct sunlight exposure between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM, use umbrellas and hats, drink plenty of water, and exercise caution when going outdoors.[21] Furthermore, although they have urged preparations across the health, water resources, and agricultural sectors to handle the impacts of El Niño, findings indicate that effective emergency protection and care measures for the public remain weak on the ground.
- Concluding Analysis
In analyzing the overall situation across Mon State during the entire month of October 2026 from all angles, a distinct division is observed between areas experiencing active clashes and areas without active clashes:
- Areas with Active Clashes: (For example, Kyaikto Township under KNU Brigade 1 territory and villages along the Mon–Karen border) The military junta has been conducting continuous bombings and shelling nearly every day using airstrikes, drones, and heavy artillery. Consequently, civilians—including 3-year-old children[22]—have been killed and injured, while over 250 households[23] (thousands of locals) have been forced to flee to safety. Communication lines remain severed, and with homes and workplaces destroyed, agricultural and daily-wage jobs have come to a complete halt, bringing the public to a state where maintaining a livelihood is no longer possible.
- Areas without Active Clashes: Residents are by no means able to live and earn a living peacefully. Despite the absence of fighting, authorities are compounding fuel and electricity blackouts and skyrocketing commodity prices by using plainclothes personnel to wait and seize unlicensed motorcycles even along village alleyways, carrying out forced conscription raids under the military service law, and demanding unrecorded bribes at inspection checkpoints. As a result, vendors, farm workers, and rubber tappers no longer dare to go to work, being forced to inquire via phone calls about road conditions before traveling.
Therefore, it is concluded and presented that while people in Mon State’s conflict areas are running for their lives from the threats of airstrikes and heavy artillery, those in non-conflict areas are also denied the opportunity to work peacefully due to sequential authorities’ corruption, unjust arrests and suppression, economic blockades, and the severe heat hazards of the Super El Niño climate event—leaving local residents across all groups and sectors facing a multifaceted socioeconomic crisis.
[1] Dawei Watch, October 19, 2026, Mon State running out of goods due to continuous seizures of Thai products,Link
[2] Thanlwin Times, October 18, 2026, Commodity prices skyrocket under the military government, Link
[3] IMNA, October 2, 2026, Onion prices reach highest peak of up to 10,000 MMK before new monsoon onions appear, Link
[4] IMNA, October 5, 2026, Gasoline prices rise again in Mon State, reaching nearly 5,000 MMK per liter, Link
[5] Thanlwin Times, October 18, 2026, Power outages worsen in Mon State, Link
[6] Thanlwin Times, October 4, 2026, Most livestock businesses in Mon State face potential shutdown, Link
[7] IMNA, October 2, 2026, Onion prices reach highest peak of up to 10,000 MMK before new monsoon onions appear,Link
[8] IMNA, October 21, 2026, Ahbit–Pulein–Tagundaing road section said to be passable, Link
[9] Thanlwin Times, October 25, 2026, Black market for Thai goods grows further, Link
[10] IMNA, October 24, 2026, Ye locals desire solutions for ground hardships rather than regional development, Link
[11] Dawei Watch, October 19, 2026, Over three thousand locals fleeing from Khalael–Tagundaing in Kyain Seikgyi, Link
[12] UNDP, October 8, 2026, Two in three people in Myanmar are poor or one shock away from falling into poverty, new UNDP report finds, Link
[13] BBC Burmese, July 24, 2026, Min Aung Hlaing admits to facing the burden of high commodity prices under their government, Link
[14] Thanlwin Times, October 4, 2026, Mon Military Parliament to convene emergency session, Link
[15] IMNA, October 7, 2026, Voices of locals facing daily travel and employment difficulties due to the renewed seizure of unlicensed vehicles, Link
[16] IMNA, October 7, 2026, As daily temperatures rise, heat-related deaths increase in Mon State, Link
[17] WMO, 8 October 2026, Sea-surface temperatures reflect strengthening El Niño, Link
[18] BNI, October 12, 2026, Super El Niño could cause temperatures in Mon and Karen States to rise up to 40 degrees Celsius in the upcoming 2027 summer, Link
[19] IMNA, October 7, 2026, WMO warns severe El Niño could trigger extreme weather events, Link
[20] Climate Impact Lab, September 23, 2026, More than 451,000 Heat Deaths Projected from Super El Niño, Link
[21] IMNA, October 22, 2026, As daily temperatures rise, heat-related deaths increase in Mon State, Link
[22] Thanlwin Times, October 3, 2026, Heavy artillery fire kills one child and injures another in Kyaikto, Link
[23] IMNA, October 7, 2026, Daily airstrikes continue in Kyaikto, forcing locals to remain displaced, Link
